Hi,
Let me walk you through, with the nature of this task, i don't know about the variables, but i let you, this task can be done in two most important steps, number 1, we will have to run sensitivity analysis test for each variable and its impact on the result, might be linear regression or logistic can be handy but, it will all depend on the data, second and the most important thing is prediction model, as far as in my data engineering career, i have seen neural network and clustering as a best option for prediction, but rest will depend on the data.
I hope you that you will consider my application, and rest we can discuss on the messages, if you want to hire me.
Regards
Usman Ali